For today’s predictions, I’ll be looking at those sports which are (loosely speaking) the team sports at this summer’s Olympics. As ever, per my previous post, take these predictions with at least a grain of salt – I’m not an expert at the best of times but the events of the last 18 months have made making accurate sporting predictions even more of a guesswork than usual!
Baseball
Baseball is back in the Olympics for the first time in a while, as one of the optional sports chosen by the Tokyo Olympics. The timing of the Games, however, means that this will not be an event headlined by many of the current greats of the sport, most of whom are currently mid-season in MLB. Most of the six teams are therefore a mixture of relatively inexperienced (at the top level) newcomers or some recently retired former greats, such as Jose Bautista and Adrian Gonzalez. This therefore makes this a tough prediction to make as, frankly, I don’t know much about any of the teams’ likely form!
- Gold – Japan
- Silver – Mexico
- Bronze – USA
Basketball
There are two basketball events at this year’s Olympics – the normal 5 on 5 event that people will recognise, and a new 3-on-3 event that is making its debut at these Games.
In terms of the ‘normal’ basketball, the Women’s event is arguably one of – if not THE – easiest predictions to make for the entire Games. The US Women’s team is utterly dominant. They have won the last three World Cups and the last SIX Olympic Games, usually by a considerable margin. It would be monumental shock for them not to continue that streak.
If we are looking purely at Olympic gold medals, the Men’s team is almost as successful as the Women’s. However, recent form has shown a few cracks in their armour. At the 2019 World Cup, the US Men finished only 7th, losing at the quarter final stage to France. This was, admittedly, an understrength team but still a roster of NBA players. In preparation for the Games this summer, the US has lost exhibition matches to both Nigeria and Australia, even with a full-strength team available. Whilst they still should be considered favourites, it would not be anywhere near as big a shock were they not to win gold. Spain, France, Australia and Argentina are amongst the countries hoping to cause that shock.
The new 3×3 tournament is played in what can be considered ‘backyard’ basketball conditions – a half court with both teams shooting at the same hoop, with 1 point for a basket scored within the arc, and 2 from outside (as opposed to the 2 points from inside and 3 from outside in the ‘normal’ game). The game is first to 21, or whoever is leading after 10 minutes if that score is not reached. The fast-paced nature of the game, like rugby sevens, closes the gap between the traditional top nations and others.
Men
- Gold – USA
- Silver – Spain
- Bronze – Australia
Women
- Gold – USA
- Silver – Australia
- Bronze – Spain
Men 3×3
- Gold – Serbia
- Silver – Poland
- Bronze – Japan
Women 3×3
- Gold – USA
- Silver – China
- Bronze – France
Football
Football at the Olympics is an oddity, as it includes an age restriction (possibly the only one that I can think of). Whilst the women’s competition is all ages, the men’s competition is limited to U23, with up to three over age players allowed.
Because of the time of the rearranged Games, and other rearranged competitions (both the Copa America and the European Championships finished less than a week ago), the squads are perhaps somewhat weaker than normal. Spain’s squad seems a standout, though they are likely to face a tough challenge in the quarter finals from one of Germany or Brazil. I fancy the final to be Spain vs Brazil, with Japan taking advantage of the home conditions to pick up the bronze.
The Women’s Event seems, on the face of things, easier to predict. Given the draw, it’s hard to look past a repeat of the 2019 World Cup Final, between the USA and the Netherlands. Bronze is more open, with several sides, including Japan, Great Britain, Sweden, Canada and Australia. Again, with the set-up of the draw and home conditions, I think Japan could come away with the medal.
Men
- Gold – Spain
- Silver – Brazil
- Bronze – Japan
Women
- Gold – USA
- Silver – Netherlands
- Bronze – Japan
Handball
Denmark are the reigning Men’s champions, and winner of the last two world championships, so rightly should be considered favourites going into the Games. The Women’s competition seems more open, with ROC (which is the Russian team but there aren’t allowed to compete under that name), Netherlands, France, Spain and Norway all being realistic contenders for the top of the podium.
Men
- Gold – Denmark
- Silver – France
- Bronze – Sweden
Women
- Gold – Spain
- Silver – Netherlands
- Bronze – ROC
Hockey
For the Americans amongst you, sadly this sport isn’t the ice version. Perhaps because of that, the US is unrepresented this summer in the sport – indeed, on the Men’s side, the US has not reached the Olympics in hockey since hosting in the games in 1996, although the Women’s team has a much better record.
In recent years, Australia and the Netherlands have been countries that have dominated both the Men’s and Women’s events and it would be no surprise if they were to be amongst the medallists again this summer.
Men
- Gold – Australia
- Silver – Belgium
- Bronze – Netherlands
Women
- Gold – Netherlands
- Silver – Australia
- Bronze – Great Britain
Rugby 7s
Rugby 7s made its Olympic debut in Rio, where Fiji (Men) and Australia (Women) took gold. Many of the teams that contested those games return this time out, including New Zealand, who missed out entirely on the medals in the Men’s event last time out, the USA – a growing power in the sport – and, on the Men’s side at least, look out for the host nation. They reached the Semi Finals in 2016 and may look to repeat that performance here.
Men
- Gold – New Zealand
- Silver – Fiji
- Bronze – South Africa
Women
- Gold – New Zealand
- Silver – Australia
- Bronze – USA
Softball
Softball returns to the Games after its absence at the last 2 Olympics. I’ll be honest, I know almost nothing about the sport! However, it is a sport that has been dominated by the US and Japan previously, which explains in part its return. The last two World Cups have had the US, Japan and Canada on the podium, and that seems like a logical prediction for this summer.
- Gold – USA
- Silver – Japan
- Bronze – Canada
Volleyball
In both Indoor and Beach Volleyball, it is a reasonable bet to back either Brazil or the USA. Since the beach version of the sport was introduced in the Atlanta Games of 1996 there have been 72 medals awarded between the two types. Exactly half of those medals have gone to a pairing or team from one of those two countries.
One word of caution – this is one of the events where the knock stage draw is not determined by pure seeding in advance, however but rather after the pool play, which makes it tougher to predict than some events given that “luck of the draw” absolutely comes into play here.
Men Indoor
- Gold – USA
- Silver – Poland
- Bronze – Brazil
Women Indoor
- Gold – China
- Silver – Serbia
- Bronze – Brazil
Men Beach
- Gold – Mol/Sorum (Norway)
- Silver – Evandro/Bruno (Brazil)
- Bronze – Alison/Alvaro (Brazil)
Women Beach
- Gold – Klineman/Ross (USA)
- Silver – Clancy/del Solar (Australia)
- Bronze – Pavan/H-Parades (Canada)
Waterpolo
Men’s Waterpolo has long been dominated by teams from Europe, especially Central and Eastern Europe. I don’t expect that to change this year. The same is mostly true on the Women’s side of things, with one important exception. The US Women’s team is a powerhouse on the world stage, and should be considered the overwhelming favourite for gold again.
Men
- Gold – Hungary
- Silver – Spain
- Bronze – Croatia
Women
- Gold – USA
- Silver – Spain
- Bronze – Hungary
If you want to prove yourselves smarter than me (not the most difficult of challenges, I’ll admit), add your predictions in the comment below!
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