Swimming at the 2022 Commonwealth Games

So, the opening ceremony is behind us and, in just a few hours, the first events of the Birmingham Commonwealth Games will start (helpfully for a British person who lives in the US, at around 3 in the morning!). One of the first sports to start with a bang will be Swimming, which is one of the central sports of the entire games, along with Athletics. It is also one of the sports that features para-events integrated alongside able bodied events.

Like Athletics, swimming has recently held World Championships, although there was a bigger gap between those championships and these games when compared to Athletics. The presence of the two competitions meant that different countries have approached the summer very differently. Australia and South Africa prioritised these Commonwealth Games – with the likes of Ariane Titmus and Emma McKeon skipping the worlds champs entirely – whilst Canada seems to have done the opposite, and with the Home Nations somewhere in the middle.

On the Women’s side, expect Australia to dominate proceedings. In fact, it would not be beyond the realms of possibility for them to win gold in every event, such is the strength of Australian female swimming. However, although possible, the presence of the likes of Summer McIntosh, Maggie McNeil and Kylie Masse (of Canada) and Tatjana Schoenmaker and Lara van Niekerk (of South Africa) make such a sweep less likely.

A sweep IS likely, however, in the Women’s relays. Had Canada been at full strength they could have run Australia close, but several of their top swimmers have chosen to pass on this meet.

The men’s events, however, look likely to be much more challenging for the Green and Gold. Whilst they will undoubtedly still win a substantial haul of medals (a team containing the likes of Kyle Chalmers, Elijah Winnington and Zac Stubblety-Cook would hardly expect otherwise), the challenge from other countries will be equally strong, with the likes of Tom Dean (England), Duncan Scott (Scotland), Pieter Coetze (South Africa) and Dan Jervis (Wales) all harbouring realistic chances of standing a-top the podium. Not to mention the phenomenal Adam Peaty who has been out for much of this year with a foot injury. If he is back to anything like top form he should dominate the shorter breaststroke events.

The relays are also more open on the men’s side, with Australia perhaps being narrow favourite in all three. But it would not be a great surprise if England were to win any of them either, with Canada, South Africa, Scotland and Wales lurking.

Finally, we have the mixed relays – both the mixed freestyle and mixed medley. Perhaps unsurprisingly, Australia are overwhelming favourites for the freestyle. The medley, however, could be decided by the performance of Lauren Cox, who seems likely to be the replacement for Kathleen Dawson (who is not only injured, but also Scottish!) in a team that otherwise is the reigning Olympic champions.

World Athletics Championships 2022 – All Change?

Much like the recently held World Aquatics Championships, the World Athletics Championships – which start tomorrow at the storied Hayward Field in Eugene, Oregon – have had something of a troubled history due to the ever present threat that has been the COVID pandemic.

Originally planned for last summer, the postponement of the Tokyo Olympics meant they were shifted to this year and added into what was already a somewhat crowded summer schedule. When you add in the inevitable retirements that follow at the end of each Olympic cycle, the banning of Russian and Belarussian athletes, and the equally inevitable injuries that are the constant bane of the life of professional sportsmen and women and these championships could be somewhat unpredictable.

What is going to be very predictable, however, is the likely dominance of the United States. Always one of the dominant forces in world athletics, expect them to be extra motivated to perform well in front of a home audience.

This is especially true in the men’s events, where the US could feasibly sweep the sprint events, as well as the relays. One story to look for is in the 400m hurdles, where Olympic champion and world record holder Karston Warholm of Norway will be looking to defend his world title but will do so with questionable fitness, having pulled up in his only race this season. He will hope to gain extra inspiration from his countryman Jakob Ingebrigtsen who could potentially win the double of 1500m and 5000m.

In the field, expect some familar names to dominate. Mutaz Barshim of Qatar (pole vault) and Anderson Peters of Grenada (javelin) will be hoping to repeat their triumph from Doha 2019. And in the discus Kristjan Ceh (Slovenia) and Daniel Stahl (Sweden) will continue their storied rivalry.

On the women’s side, expect the Jamaican sprinters to be as strong as ever. Dina Asher Smith will be looking to replicate her 200m crown from 2019 but has not been on top form this season. The same could be said of Sifan Hassan (Netherlands) who is the defending champion in both the 1500m and 10000m but has competed in only one race this season – a (by her standards) fairly pedestrian 5000m.

Two of the potential stars of the Championships will be home favourites – Sydney McLaughlin is a strong favourite to win the 400m hurdles crown and Valerie Allman similarly favoured to win the Discus.

Finally, we have one mixed event to look forward to, the 4x400m. Unfortunately the scheduling of this event is disappointing this year. Both the heats and the final will take place tomorrow, the first day of the championships. This favours the stronger teams (such as the US or Jamaica) greatly, as they could potentially run 2 entirely different teams, a luxury that smaller nations will lack.

Enjoy the Championships! Next up, we have the Commonwealth Games!

2022 World Aquatics Championships – Swimming, Artistic Swimming and Water Polo

The 2022 World Aquatics Championships are – to use an aquatic term – a bit of an odd fish. They started life as the 2021 Championships, due to be held in Fukuoka, Japan. They were postponed from that year to avoid clashing with the already-postponed 2020 Tokyo Olympics. They were then further postponed due to the on-going pandemic to 2023. Not wanting to go 4 years without a World Championships (the last were held in South Korea in 2019), the governing body, FINA, hastily arranged these championships, taking place in Budapest.

Those circumstances alone make this an unusual championships, but things have further been complicated by the crowded sporting schedule (which has seen several Commonwealth swimmers skip the Worlds in favour of those Games next month), as well as the inevitable post-Olympic retirements, the ongoing pandemic and finally, but very much not least, the ongoing war in Ukraine.

This final situation has seen the banning of Russian and Belarussian athletes from several sporting events and these championships are one of those. It all adds up to a strange situation, with many Olympic medalists not here at the first major meet after those games.

The outcome of all this is that the USA – a nation that regularly finishes top of the medal table anyway – could see unprecedented success at these championships. Caeleb Dressel is a one man medal machine but expect Lilly King and Katie Ledecky to come away with bagfuls of medals each, especially in the absence of Yulia Efimova, Tatjana Schoenmaker and Ariane Titmus.

However, this does not mean that there are not stars on display. Summer McIntosh, the teenage Canadian sensation is tipped to enjoy a breakout meet and David Popovici of Romania could continue his meteoric rise. And although Dressel will win a ton of medals, look for his battle with home favourite Kristof Milak in the 100m fly to be one of the potential highlights of the championships.

From a British point of view, these championships were potentially a chance to build on their successful Olympics. However, their medal chances have been hit heavily with injuries to Kathleen Dawson, Adam Peaty and the late Covid-related withdrawl of Duncan Scott. They do still have prospects (Tom Dean and Abbie Wood being two of their brightest) but expect this meet to be a relatively quiet one ahead of those potentially explosive Commonwealth Games in Birmingham.

Finally for this preview, the banning of Russian athletes will have a huge effect on the artistic swimming, a discipline that they dominate. Expect China and, perhaps poetically, Ukraine to benefit from their absence.

In water polo, the USA women start as red hot favourites. The men’s side is more open but Olympic champions Serbia should be seen as one of the tips and expect strong showings from the home nation.

I’ll preview the open water swimming and diving early next week, when the final entries are released. Until next time!!

Long Time, No Posts

Hello faithful readers. Please accept my apologies for such a lengthy absence!

Real life meant that the last 6-9 months have not been ideal, either for blogging or sports viewing in general. Amongst, other things we’ve moved out of the city (Chicago in this case) and bought a house in the suburbs, which has been something of a time consuming process, as you might well imagine! But things are starting to calm down and I’m ready for a block buster summer of sports.

Amongst other things, we have a rearranged World Aquatics Championships, starting this week in Budapest, a World Athletics Championships in July in Oregon, the Commonwealth Games in Birmingham at the end of July and swiftly after that the European Championships in Munich in August.

There are clearly many other events happening over the summer, but the above are some that I will be focussing on, as well as making predictions for.

So, full speed ahead starts again tomorrow, with my preview of the aforementioned World Aquatics Championships!

UCI Road World Championships 2021

It’s hard to believe that it has been six weeks since the Olympics wrapped up, but we’re back with one of the biggest events of the annual Cycling calendar – the Road World Championships, where we will see who gets to wear the rainbow jerseys for the next year!

The Courses

The event is being held in the Flanders region of Belgium, with the road races finishing in Leuven but containing a route filled with cobbles, narrow corners, as well as short but incredibly punishing climbs. This means that the road races will probably favour the ‘puncheurs’ – riders who can best be described as a mixture of everything, being capable of competing at both climbing and sprinting without necessarily being considered the very best in the world at either. These riders tend to specialise in events such as the one-day Spring Classics, which tend to have similar profiles to the course being used for these championships.

The Time Trials, however, are going to be held on a mostly flat course around Bruges. As such, it seems likely that the Time Trials will be won by true time trial specialists, rather than a more climb orientated rider.

Unlike the 2020 event – which was limited only to the senior ‘elite’ competitions, this year’s event will have the full range of disciplines on show, including the U23 events for the men, junior events for both men and women as well as the marvellous spectacle of the mixed team time trial, which is essentially a relay where a team of men race 22km, before ‘handing off’ to a team of women doing the same and then the combined time decides the podium.

With Belgium (and indeed Flanders in particular) being one of the true heartlands of cycling, it should make for a spectacular week of racing. Especially if it rains!

The Contenders

In terms of potential podium finishers in the senior rases, the home nation has one of the stand-out favourites for the Men’s Elite Road Race title in Wout van Aert, a rider capable of winning over any terrain on any day, in any weather and who will be backed up by a strong Belgian squad. Other riders who will certainly fancy their chances include reigning champion Julian Alaphilippe (France), Sonny Colbrelli (Italy), Peter Sagan (Slovakia) and the Slovenian pair of Tadej Pogacar and Primoz Roglic. Mathieu van der Poel (Netherlands) would have been considered one of the strong favourites but his form is not known following a heavy crash in the mountain biking in Tokyo.

British hopes may lie with Tom Pidcock, who outsprinted van Aert in earlier this year Brabanste Pijl, which uses some of the same course that will be contested this week.

On the Women’s side, it’s hard to look past the Dutch squad, who have multiple riders capable of winning the race, including Anna van der Breggen, Annemiek van Vleuten, Marianne Vos and others. On paper, it would be foolish to bet against them. That being said, they were similarly favoured to win in Tokyo this summer and, frankly, messed up their tactics terribly where Austria’s Anna Kiesenhofer escaped to a famous Gold.

If the Dutch have a similar breakdown here, look for the likes of Lotte Kopecky (Belgium), Elisa Borghini (Italy) and Lizzie Deignan (Great Britain) to try and take advantage.

Given the flat nature of the course, the time trials should favour the likes of Filippo Ganna (Italy), and Stefan Kung (Switzerland), being out and out specialists. However, van Aert is doubling up in this event and could medal, as could his Belgian teammate Remco Evenepoel. For a dark horse or two, never count out the likes of Tony Martin (Germany) or Michel Kwiatkoswki (Poland). British hopes lie with Dan Bingham and Ethan Hayter.

On the women’s side, the Dutch squad, as ever, are strong favourites. Marlen Reusser of Switzerland recently won the European title, however, and will fancy her chances of adding the rainbow jersey to her collection.

One name to look out for in the junior races if you are British (or indeed, if you are Swedish!) is that of Zoe Bäckstedt. If it is true that sporting talent often runs in the family, then it is fair to say that Bäckstedt has outstanding pedigree! Both her parents (Magnus and Megan) are former professional riders themselves, whilst her elder sister Elynor is a current professional, who medalled in these championships in the junior time trial in both 2018 and 2019. Definitely one to look out for!

Finally – on a more somber note – it would be wrong not to mention the sad passing of former professional Chris Anker Sorensen following a traffic collision yesterday. Sorensen, who was in Belgium in preparation for commentating on the Championships for Danish television, was hit whilst out riding. A reminder of the ever present dangers that cyclists face on a day to day basis.

Ian’s Olympic Report Card

As we gear up for the first day of the Tokyo Paralympics starting in just a couple of hours (*excited squeal*), I’ve finally found time to look back at my predictions for the Olympics earlier this summer. And yes, I know they finished a couple of weeks ago – sadly real life got in the way of things and I’ve not been able to get around to looking at all the results until now!

Below is a table showcasing quite how terribly I did! I’ve recorded both predictions I got spot on, as well as tracking those I predicted to medal, but got the colour wrong.

If my maths is correct (never a guarantee), I have a correct prediction rate of just under 1 in 4 – or 25% if you prefer. If you look at the partially correct predictions, that comes to around 53%.

Breaking the predictions down further, it is perhaps unsurprising that Athletics and Swimming were among the better events for my predictions. They are two of the Olympic sports I follow closest generally. More surprisingly is the fact that I did reasonably well in Weightlifting and Wrestling. These are two sports, it is fair to say, that I don’t follow quite so much!

All in all, I’m pretty satisfied with that, especially given the inherent uncertainty of this current pandemic world.

Looking at British predictions for a second, I predicted 18 of our medals correctly, and another 27 that they would medal but the wrong colour. To blow my own trumpet for a second, that compares favourably to the last pre-game predictions from Gracenote, who are the prediction firm often quoted in newspapers and the like. They predicted 14 GB medals correctly and 20 more partially correct.

Finally, listed below are what I’m calling “perfect podium predictions” – these are the 15 events that I predicted the entire podium correctly. Something of an eclectic mix!

  • Artistic Swimming – Duet
  • Artistic Swimming – Team
  • Athletics – M 400m Hurdles
  • Athletics – M Shot Put
  • Athletics – W 400m Hurdles
  • Canoeing – M K4 500m
  • Canoeing – W K4 500m
  • Cycling – M Team Sprint
  • Equestrian – Team Dressage
  • Fencing – W Team Sabre
  • Skateboarding – W Park
  • Swimming – W 800m Free
  • Swimming – M 200m Back
  • Water Polo – Women
  • Weightlifting – W 87kg

Wrestling at the 2020 Olympics

One final of predictions for you, and it is Wrestling. No, not the people in flamboyant costumes answering to names like “The Rock” or “Roman Reigns”. They are great athletes but, with the exception of Kurt Angle, not really Olympic standard wrestlers.  

There are two forms of wrestling at the Olympics – Freestyle, which both Men and Women compete at and Greco-Roman, at which only Men take part.

I’ll be honest, the reason I left these predictions for last is two-fold. Firstly, the Wrestling programme starts relatively late in the schedule. Secondly, I don’t know very much about Wrestling. In fact, I’d go so far as to say that it is pretty much the only sport that I think I could say I know nothing about. So whilst I recommend you take all my predictions with a grain of salt, these I would recommend taking with an entire mountain of the stuff. Still, for the sake of completeness, here they are.

Athletics at the 2020 Olympics

This is the penultimate set of predictions for these Games and, arguably, we’ve left the best for (almost) last. Athletics, or track and field as it is often called in some countries, is often said to be THE definitive Olympic sport and has, over the years, made household names of the likes of Jesse Owen, Usain Bolt and many others.

For the sake of not bombarding you all with a massive wall of text, I’ll look at the Men’s and Women’s events separately below.

Men’s Events

The 100m for Men is one of the events of any Summer Games. For the first time since the Athens Games of 2004, however, we will not have Usain Bolt lining up on the track. The USA, which last won this race in those Games of 2004, will fancy their chances here, with Trayvon Bromell and Ronnie Baker both being amongst the favourites. Indeed, the USA will be looking to win numerous events in the sprints, with Noah Lyles and Erriyon Knighton (both 200m), Grant Holloway (110m hurdles) and Michael Norman (400m) harbouring realistic ambitions of being on the top step of the podium.

Like the 100m, the 800m will have a new champion in the absence of David Rudisha. This event is wide open, with an argument to be made for about 10 men being on the podium. Unlike the 800m, the 1500m looks somewhat more clear-cut, with Timothy Cheruiyot (Kenya) the overwhelming favourite for gold, ahead of Jakob Ingenbrigsten (Norway). In the 5000m, look for the fast improving Mo Katir (Spain) to potentially spring a surprise.

Over in the field, JuVaughn Harrison (USA) is going for a double Gold in both Long Jump and High Jump. Other field events includes the Hammer, where Pawel Fajdek (Poland) is a strong favourite, Javelin – where Johannes Vetter (Germany) is an even stronger favourite, and Pole Vault, which had the makings of a great battle between Armand Duplantis (Sweden), Sam Kendricks (USA) and the veteran Renaud Lavillenie (France), although Kendricks has become a last minute withdrawal following a positive test for COVID.

The Decathlon has a strong favourite in Damien Warner, who is around 300 points better than his nearest rival this year. However, the gruelling nature of the event often brings unexpected results, as athletes can succumb to injuries.

Women’s Events

Despite the late banning of one of the favourites for the 100m, Sha’Carri Richardson, for failing a drugs test, the sprint events at the games will still be loaded with talent. Shelly-Ann Fraser-Price (Jamaica) is the fastest women alive and probably favourite for the 100m crown. But she will face tough competition from her compatriot Elaine Thompson-Herath and Britain’s Dina Asher Smith, amongst others. The three will also be amongst the favourites for the 200m crown.

The USA will expect to medal well in the hurdles events, where Sydney McLaughlin recently set a new world record. In the 800m, they field 19 year old Athing Mu, who will possibly be one of the breakout stars of the Games on the track.

The long-distance events are, unsurprisingly, likely to feature numerous medallists from East Africa, with Faith Kipyegon and Hellen Obiri (both Kenya) hoping to medal. One athlete to note is Sifan Hassan (Netherlands). She is currently entered into 3 events – the 1500m, 5000m and 10000m, though the schedule means that she is likely to drop one at the last minute. Whichever events she does contest, however, she will enter as one of the medal favourites.

In the field events, Yulimar Rojas (Venezuela) in the Triple Jump is perhaps one of the strongest favourites across all athletics. Expect a titanic battle in the Pole Vault where six or seven athletes could easily win gold if they get their performance right on the day.

Finally, the relay events are likely to be a battle between the USA and Jamaica, as they often are.

We do have one event making its Olympic debut on the track – the mixed 4x400m relay. Expect the USA to win this race by the proverbial country mile!

Diving and Artistic Swimming at the 2020 Olympics

We’re getting close to the last few predictions. In this post, we’ll be looking at diving and artistic swimming (formally known as synchronised swimming).

Diving

So, first, a confession – in all the excitement of the first two days of the Games, I didn’t notice that the first Diving Gold – the Women’s 3m springboard synchro – was being handed out on day 2. Which means that it has already happened. Oops.

That being said, I’ve still included it, as I made the actual predictions a few days ago. You’ll have to just believe me on this. In reality, it was one of the easier predictions to make. China were a clear favourite and Canada almost as clear a favourite for silver. It was only bronze that was up for grabs in my mind and, as you can see, that’s the one I got wrong.

In fact, China could well sweep the top of the podium in all 8 of the diving events. At the last 2 Olympics they have won 7 of 8 each time. They will fancy their chances of going one better this time. That being said, there are a few events where that might not happen. Great Britain are the defending Olympic champions in the Men’s 3m synchro and one half of that team – Jack Laugher – returns to defend that crown. Tom Daley also has a chance in the 10m platform. If the Chinese divers are slightly below their best, there are individuals from several countries waiting to take their chance.

Artistic Swimming

There are just two events at the Games in artistic swimming – the duet and the team event – and they are likely to be two of the easier events to predict. The ROC are likely to win both, China are likely to get Silver in both, and Ukraine the bronze in both. That has been the case in most previous World Championships and Olympic Games and there’s no real reason to suspect otherwise this time out.

So, that’s almost all the predictions done. All that remains to do are athletics and wrestling. Neither of those events take place until next weekend, so I can enjoy a few prediction-less days (and so can you)!

Other Sports at the 2020 Olympics

So this article will be made up of the events that I couldn’t find another category to put them in! However, don’t let that fool you. Some of these events have the potential to be highlights of the Games.

Modern Pentathlon

First up, a sport that owes its very existence to the Olympics. Created for the 1912 Games and consisting of five disciplines – swimming, fencing, show jumping, shooting and running – it is said to be inspired by the demands expected of a cavalry officer trapped behind enemy lines in the late 19th century – to be able to ride a horse, fight their enemies with sword and gun and, if needed, be able to swim or run back to their comrades. Whether that story is true or not, this remains one of the most unique of Olympics events.

Great Britain and France are both expected to be challenging for medals. One huge word of caution though in regard to making successful predictions. The show jumping section is notorious for its impact on making medal chances. This is because the riders do not ride on their own horses but rather are assigned a horse 20 minutes before the event starts who they may never have seen before. This unfamiliarity between horse and rider can be crucial.

Triathlon

As the name will suggest, triathlon at the Olympics consists of three disciplines – a 1500m swim, 40km bike ride and finally a 10km run (in the individual events that is, the mixed relay is a much shorter sprint event).

These Games will be without Alistair Brownlee, who has won the men’s event at the last two Games, although his younger brother Jonny – the bronze and silver medal from London and Rio respectively – returns. The favourite, however, is Vincent Luis (France).

On the women’s side, we will also see a new champion crowned, as Gwen Jorgensen of the US is not returning to defending her title. Flora Duffy (Bermuda) is possibly the favourite, although has only recently returned from injury. Another athlete to watch out for is Nicola Spirig Hug (Switzerland) who competes sparingly on the international circuit but who has historically peaked at the Olympics. And, as in the men’s event, expect strong challenges from the French and British.

Golf

Golf is one of the sports that is most difficult to predict, as form and conditions can vary wildly week to week and certain courses can drastically favour some athletes more than others.

That being said, there are some reasonable guesses that can be made – on the women’s side, South Korea will expect to be amongst the medals as they dominate the world rankings, and the USA will hope to medal in both men’s and women’s events. Don’t forget Jon Rahm of Spain, who is ranked world number one.

Equestrian

There are three disciplines in Equestrian at the Olympics – Dressage, 3-Day Eventing and Show Jumping.

As is traditional, because it is a sport where the competitors sit on something, Britain has a strong record (seriously, look at the British medal list – the number of medals they have won in seated sports like rowing, cycling, sailing and others is bizarre. But I digress) in these events, including double Olympic Dressage champion Charlotte Dujardin and will always fancy their chances in the team events.

Other nations that will expect to feature well include Germany, who could well dominate the Equestrian medal table with a hatful of golds, the USA and New Zealand.

Skateboarding

Our final two events in this preview are both making their Olympic debut in these Games. First up we have skateboarding, which has two disciplines on show here – street and park. Essentially, the difference (at least to my inexpert eye) is that the street format utilises more rails, stairs and ledges, whilst the park element uses more of the ‘traditional’ half and quarter pipes. I think.

Either way, as with many of the more modern extreme sports, expect the USA and Brazil to be strong medal contenders. Japan also has realistic chances of multiple medals in this event. Finally, it is impossible not to mention Sky Brown who, at 13 years of age, is the youngest person ever to represent Great Britain at the Games. Born in Japan to an English father and Japanese mother – and partially raised in the US – she has a legitimate medal chance.

Sport Climbing

Sport climbing is another of the new events and, I’ll be honest, is one that I know almost nothing about, at least in terms of predicting form! Looking at the world rankings and past events though, the home nation has decent medal chances in both events.

We’re close to finishing up the predictions (phew!), with only diving, artistic swimming, wrestling and athletics left to do. Next up, diving and artistic swimming!